Говорится, когда почти уверен, что это так.
Said when you are quite sure something is true.
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See how the word “держу пари” is used in sentences
Держу пари, она уже об этом знает. — I'll bet she already knows about it.
Держу пари, дождь пойдёт раньше, чем мы дойдём до дома. — I'll bet it rains before we get home.
Вон та машина — его, держу пари. — That's his car over there, I'll bet.
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